Despite the heavy Lebanese death toll, the massive damageincurred by dozens of towns and villages suspected of harboringmilitant Shiite Hezbollah guerrillas and the panic exodus of 350,000of their inhabitants, the political consequences are being toutedhere as constructive and beneficial. The most promising of these issaid to be the new channel of communication opened up with thediligent help of Secretary of State Warren Christopher amongJerusalem, Damascus and Beirut.
This not only led to the unwritten military understandings thatmade a cease-fire possible, but also proved that the three respectivegovernments share mutual interests and concerns that take precedenceover the Islamic fundamentalists' ideologically motivated actions.
Like its mentor, Iran, Hezbollah opposes the peace talks withIsrael and seeks to undermine them by fomenting military clashesdesigned to draw Israeli fire and turn the potential peacemakers intobelligerents again.
For Christopher, the timing was perfect. It enabled him toconduct his current Middle East shuttle as the indispensiblearchitect of the fragile, but effective, cease-fire who enjoys theconfidence and respect of all the major players - Rabin, LebanesePrime Minister Rafik Hariri and Syrian President Hafez Assad. At thesame time, the subtle behind-the-scenes diplomacy in which Iran wasan officially unnamed (but operationally essential) participantdemonstrated that the Tehran regime cannot be overlooked or ignoredin the contemporary Middle Eastern context.
Some observers contend that Iran's consent to restrain itsHezbollah proxies was prompted by a furtive desire to improve itsstanding in future negotiations with thme United States. But if Iranretreated from the brink mainly because Syria preferred tosynchronize its policies with Washington rather than Tehran andthereby bolster its chances of eventually retrieving the occupiedGolan Heights from Israel, then the big winner of this complicatedmaneuver is President Assad.
The Syrian leader now is in a better position to lodge histerritorial claim than before the Israeli showdown with the Hezbollahmilitia. And by the same token, Rabin, who demonstrated hisreadiness to unleash the full fury of Israel's air power andartillery can argue that his proven commitment to Israel's securitygives him a mandate to make territorial concessions in the GolanHeights.
That is Israel's rationale for regarding its "OperationReckoning" as a boon to the peace process. The demurral expressedby "a senior official traveling with the secretary of state"(presumably a euphemism for Christopher himself) to the effect thatit was detrimental if not lethal may merely have been motivated moreby the "even-handedness" professed by U.S. diplomacy.
Jay Bushinsky writes on the Middle East.
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